Television: overhauling the broken model

Yesterday, I talked about the Writers Guild of America (WGA) writers strike and how the fallout of that event affected scripted television. Unfortunately, the strike couldn’t fix the fundamental problems in the industry, namely its business model.

Many people have speculated on the future of the television industry. I’d like to make my own prediction: Broadcast television as we know it is a thing of the past. The networks that don’t understand this will suffer.

The old model
In the past, there were three major networks and your television probably received three, maybe four or five channels. Local channels without a network affiliation usually resorted to showing reruns of old television shows and late night monster movies. The audience had little choice, so networks cast the widest net possible and reeled in viewers.

Those days started to fade out with the advent of cable television. It has taken a few decades, but cable (and satellite) television are hooking a large portion of audiences. Television is no longer a local grocery store. It’s a supermarket. It’s a wholesale retail chain of programming.

As a result, viewership is splintered. Audiences are dwindling. And studios, struggling to keep viewers, are churning out recycled television mixes that are anything but creative.

Apples to apples
It’s time to stop comparing apples to oranges. The networks will have to stop worrying about how shows are performing against other (creatively different) shows in an arbitrary timeslot. There are too many variables to consider.

I envision a future wherein the creative will determine the audience and reach out to them. Maybe it will be through the Internet, or a television/Internet hybrid. You like science fiction? You’ll browse science fiction television shows as easily as you browse the science fiction section at the bookstore. You want a reality show? Take your pick.

As a result of this new “bookstore” model, NBC will compare how cop show A is doing against CBS’s cop show B. It will be like comparing apples to apples. Timeslots will be a thing of the past. There will still be advertising, but it will be less frequent, smaller in size, and more integrated into the show.

I believe that this model will inspire creativity because writers will be looking for new audiences. Writers will reach out to niche audiences that are overlooked in the current broadcast model. It’s time to start narrowcasting television. It’s time to do it right.

What about broadcast television and our inalienable right to TV over the airwaves? In the end, I think the shows that past the buzz test on the Internet will be released on broadcast television for the masses to consume. Broadcast will be a “best of” showcase for the shows that are a hit in the bookstore model.

The networks will change, of course. No more ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX. Instead, we’ll see a rise of genre-specific channels like SciFi, Chiller and Sleuth. Unlike the SciFi channel today, however, the SciFi channel of the future will be devoted to new science fiction shows that viewers of the library model liked the best.